Dr. Sherry Cooper explaining Bank of Canada hold on to the over night rate on March 6, 2024

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Until Core Inflation Falls Further Today, the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Policymakers remain concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation. The latest data show that CPI inflation fell to 2.9% in January, but year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation were in the 3% to 3.5% range. The Governing Council projects that inflation will remain around 3% over the first half of this year but also suggests that wage pressure may be diminishing. The likelihood is that inflation will slow more rapidly, allowing for a rate cut by mid-year.  The Bank also noted that Q4 GDP growth came in stronger than expected at 1.0% but was well below potential growth, confirming excess supply in the economy. Employment continues to rise more slowly than population growth. During the press conference, Governor Macklem said it was too early to consider lowering rates as more time is needed to ensure inflation falls towards the 2% target. Bottom Line The Bank of Canada expects that progress on inflation will be ‘gradual and uneven.’ “Today’s decision reflects the governing council’s assessment that a policy rate of 5% remains appropriate. It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate,” Macklem said in the prepared text of his opening statement. The Bank is pushing back on the idea that rate cuts are imminent. High interest rates are dampening discretionary spending for households renewing mortgages at much higher monthly payments. As the economy slows in the first half of this year, the BoC will signal a shift towards easing. This could happen at the next meeting on April 10, when policymakers update their economic projections. This could prepare markets for a June rate cut. “We don’t want to keep monetary policy this restrictive longer than we have to,” Macklem said. “But nor do we want to jeopardize the progress we’ve made in bringing down inflation.” Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Good afternoon

Thank you, Tony Spagnuolo from Spagnuolo and Company LLP, for the updated information below.

The BC NDP Government has been active to start 2024. Last week, the provincial budget was tabled, and a couple of big changes are coming to the real estate market.

Updates to the Property Transfer Tax (PTT) Framework

The 2024 provincial budget the BC Government is making three significant changes to the PTT Framework

1. Increase the Fair Market Value Threshold for the First Time Home Buyer (FTHB) Exemption:

Currently, the FTHB full exemption applies to properties with a fair market value (FMV) of less than $500,000, with a partial exemption for properties with a FMV of $500,000 to $525,000.

As of April 1st, 2024, the FTHB exemption will apply to properties in a different way. For properties with a FMV of less than $835,000, PTT is not payable on the first $500,000, but payable on the difference between the FMV and $500,000. For example, if the FMV of the property is $700,000, PTT paid would be 2% of $200,000 ($700,000 less $500,000). Not paying PTT on the first $500,000 saves the purchaser a total of $8,000.

If the property has a FMV between $835,000 and $860,000, then a partial exemption applies, the details of which are not yet confirmed by the BC government.

If the FMV of the property is over $860,000, then there is no FTHB PTT exemption.

2. Increase the FMV Threshold for the Newly Built Home Exemption

Effective April 1, 2024, the FMV threshold to claim the Newly Built Home Exemption will be increased from $750,000 to $1,100,000. A partial exemption is also available for properties with a FMV just above the threshold. The phase out range is $50,000 above the threshold, so properties with a FMV of greater than $1,150,000 will not be able to claim the Newly Built Home Exemption.

3. Purpose-Built Rental Exemption

The 2023 Budget included a limited exemption for purpose built rental buildings, that may limit the tax payable on values over $3,000,000. Budget 2024 builds on this exemption and provides an exemption from the PTT on purchases of new qualifying purpose-built rental buildings.

New “Flipping Tax”

A new tax targeting home flipping activity and short-term speculation will officially begin on January 1, 2025. This tax will apply on the sale of residential property held by an owner for less than two years, with the seller being taxed up to 20% of the income from the sales. To specify, properties sold within 1 year are taxed at 20%, and will decline to zero between 366 and 730 days. Exemptions may apply in certain circumstances.

As with most legislation, other conditions may apply and there is some nuance to the above summary. Please do not hesitate to contact our lawyers if you have any questions on the above.

As always, thank you for your support.

Information Provided by Tony Spagnuolo from Spagnuolo and Company LLP

Countertop Materials for Your Kitchen.

They say the kitchen is the heart of every home, and what better way to treat this important space than by ensuring you have all the right materials?

When it comes to your kitchen, there are a variety of options for cupboards, appliances, and countertops. What you may not realize, is how much you actually utilize your countertop space and the importance of choosing the right material for your cooking habits and style.

If you are considering a reno, or looking to purchase a new home, understanding the pros and cons of different countertops can ensure you make the best choices.

• Granite: A popular and durable option, granite comes in various colors and patterns. Along with being strong, it is resistant to heat and abrasion. However, it is a premium-price material and requires regular sealing every three to five years due to its porous nature.
• Marble: One of the more high-end options, similar to granite, marble provides a much-needed level of uniqueness in its patterns as well as holding up well to heat, cracking, and chipping. On the other hand, marble is more sensitive to scratches and staining and should be resealed at least once per year to improve longevity.
  
• Quartz: One of the most durable and maintenance-free countertop options, quartz comes in various options from vibrant to natural finish and is nearly indestructible under standard home conditions. Not only is quartz scratch-resistant, but it can also resist stains, bacteria, and heat damage.
• Laminate: If you’re looking for a more budget-friendly option, laminate can be a great way to go. Not only can laminate be made to resemble stone, granite, or even quartz at a fraction of the cost, but it is also easy to clean and maintain while being resistant to mold, mildew, and stains. However, bear in mind that laminate is quite sensitive to heat and can be prone to peeling or scratches.
• Butcher Block (or wood): Butcher-block wooden countertops have a great natural look while being a hardworking surface great for food prep and highly resistant to heat. However, as wood is quite porous it is important to properly seal and oil your countertops to reduce bacteria and moisture susceptibility.
• Stainless Steel: Opposite the natural look of butcher-block designs, stainless steel provides a much more industrial kitchen vibe. Stainless steel has become extremely appealing over the years due to the ease of wiping it down and its ability to inhibit bacteria buildup. However, not without its limits, stainless steel has a tendency to result in lots of water spots and fingerprints on its smooth surface. It is also more pricey than other options, but being impervious to heat damage has its charms.
• Soapstone: A wonderfully stain-resistant option, soapstone is entirely non-porous in addition to being heat and bacteria-resistant. However, to maintain this natural stone it needs to be treated regularly with oil and care must be taken to avoid surface damage such as scratches and dents.
• Ceramic Tile: Tile is an inexpensive option for your kitchen (and bathroom) counters, which is easy to install by an experienced do-it-yourselfer. Not only is tile inexpensive, but it comes in a variety of options and colors as well as being hard, durable, and resistant to heat. Keep in mind, the sizing of your tiles as smaller tiles will be more difficult to clean as opposed to larger settings. Tile is also more vulnerable to cracking, though relatively easy to replace a broken piece. It is also important to note that grout can be prone to staining.

Regardless of what type of kitchen you are designing or moving into, knowing how to care for your countertops can help increase your kitchen longevity and enjoyment!

Written by my DLC Marketing Team

Stronger-Than-Expected Canadian Inflation Will Keep The BoC On The Sidelines For Now.

Inflation held steady in November

Today’s inflation report was stronger than expected, unchanged from October’s 3.1% pace. While some had forecast a sub-3% reading, the November CPI data posted a welcome slowdown in food and shelter prices. Increases in recreation and clothing offset this–both are discretionary purchases. Cellular services and fuel oil prices declined on a year-over-year basis.

The CPI rose 0.1% from October to November, the same growth rate as in October. The steady pace of annual inflation resulted from the base effects in the energy sector. Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent month over month in November (-3.5%) than in October (-6.4%). Base effects will also inflate next month’s year-over-year data as well.

Core prices aligned with the headline figures, as the Bank of Canada’s favourite core measures came in at roughly 3.5%. Even excluding food and energy, the core rose 3.5% y/y. The core data were more favourable at three-month trends, posting at about 2.5%.

Bottom Line

Today’s CPI data show why Governor Tiff Macklem is cautious about rate cuts, but judging from the past three months, core inflation is on a downward trend.

In a speech on Friday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said inflation could get “close” to the bank’s 2% target by late next year, though he also said it was “still too early to consider cutting our policy rate.”

The economy is slowing, labour markets have eased, and price pressures are slowing. The road to 2% inflation will be bumpy, but it remains likely that monetary tightening has peaked, and rate cuts will begin by the middle of next year.

Written by Dr. Sherry Cooper DLC Chief Economist

Winterizing Your Home.

We Canadians are no strangers to the chill of the winter season! As we shift into the final few months of 2023, now is a great time to check your home before the cold front hits. Below I have included a few tips that could help you save on bills, prevent future repair costs, and be more comfortable all winter long.

• Inspect Your Fireplace: There is no better time than now to have your fireplace inspected to ensure optimal efficiency and heat output. Whether you have a wood-burning, gas, or electrical fireplace, proper maintenance can go a long way for your heating bill!

• Maintain Your Furnace: While you’re having your fireplace inspected, don’t forget to maintain your furnace! If your furnace is getting up there in age, you may want to also consider replacing it as typically newer furnaces are more efficient than the previous generation, which could help save on energy costs. Either way, ensuring your furnace is in working order will guarantee top output and a cozy winter!

• Clean The Gutters: The last thing you want is your gutters to be clogged when the snow hits! Cleaning your gutters from Fall leaves and other debris will help ensure proper drainage for melting snow. For those who want to go the extra step, consider gutter guards which can help keep out unwanted objects from your gutters.

• Examine Your Roof: While you’re prepping your gutters for the winter, it is a good idea to also examine your roof. A few things to look for include broken or missing shingles, damaged flashing, staining from water leakage, and ventilation.

• Consider a Programmable Thermostat: According to experts, a degree drop in your home temperature can measure up to 1% on your heating bill. For those of us who don’t like to have cold feet all season, smart thermostats are a great way to keep warm and optimize your energy savings! Ideally, you want to set your thermostat to turn on in the morning, off when you go to work, and back on in the evening to ensure a toasty welcome.

• Insulate Windows: Always be sure to check your windows for any gaps or water leakage and get them resealed as soon as possible. If you live in a particularly cold location, consider swapping out your windows to double-paned glass for an added layer of insulation. Another tip to keep the cold from seeping in through your windows is swapping out your curtains for a heavier, thermal-lined set which can do wonders!

• Check Your Pipes: Checking pipe joints for leaks that could cause rot and damage will save you trouble in the future. Repair any cracks you find, especially those around electrical outlets and alarm system lines. You can also consider foam pipe insulation, which is fairly easy to install and could help prevent energy loss and potential water damage from frozen pipes.

• Stock Up on Supplies: There are a few things you might want to consider stocking up on ahead of time for the winter season, such as flashlights and batteries, ice melt, extra pet food and canned goods, and an emergency storm kit that includes an extra flashlight, candles, portable radio, water, and snacks.

With a little preparation, you can keep your home in good shape without needing to feel the cold bite of winter!

Written by Cheryl’s DLC Marketing Team

In the next 2 to 3 years Canada will experience the most mortgage renewals in Canadian history. We expect to see over 5 Billion renewals. Check out the below article to prepare and know I am here for you.

Mortgage Renewal Benefits.

Is your mortgage coming up for renewal? Do you know about all the incredible options renewing your mortgage can afford you? If not, we have all the details here on how to make your mortgage renewal work for you as we start to think about 2024.

Get a Better Rate

Are you aware that when you receive notice that your mortgage is coming up for renewal, this is the best time to shop around for a more favourable interest rate? At renewal time, it is easy to shop around or switch lenders for a preferable interest rate as it doesn’t break your mortgage. With interest rates expected to come down as we move into the New Year, taking some time to reach out to me and shopping the market could help save you money!

Consolidate Debt

Renewal time is also a great time to take a look at your existing debt and determine whether or not you want to consolidate it onto your mortgage. For some, this means consolidating your holiday credit card debt into your mortgage, for others it could be car loans, education, etc. Regardless of the type of debt, consolidating into your mortgage allows for one easy payment instead of juggling multiple loans. Plus, in most cases, the interest rate on your mortgage is less than you would be charged with credit card companies.

Start on that Reno

Do you have projects around the house you’ve been dying to get started on? Renewal time is a great opportunity for you to look at utilizing some of your home equity to help with home renovations so you can finally have that dream kitchen, updated bathroom, OR you can even utilize it to purchase a vacation property!

Change Your Mortgage Product

Are you not happy with your existing mortgage product? Perhaps you’re finding that your variable-rate or adjustable-rate mortgages are fluctuating too much and you want to lock in! Alternatively, maybe you want to switch to variable as interest rates start to level out. You can also utilize your renewal time to take advantage of a different payment or amortization schedule to help pay off your mortgage faster!

Change Your Lender

Not happy with your current lender? Perhaps a different bank has a lower rate or a mortgage product with terms that better suit your needs. A mortgage renewal is a great time to switch to a different bank or credit union to ensure that you are getting the value you want out of your mortgage if you are finding that your needs are not currently being met.

Regardless of how you feel about your current mortgage and what changes you may want to make, if your mortgage is coming up for renewal or is ready for renewal, please don’t hesitate to reach out to a DLC Mortgage Expert today! We’d be happy to discuss your situation and review any changes that would be beneficial for you to reach your goals; from shopping for new rates or utilizing that equity! Plus, we can help you find the best option for where you are at in your life now and help you to ensure future financial success.

Written by Cheryl’s DLC Marketing Team

Bank of Canada Holds The Overnight Policy Rate Steady at 5% For the Third Consecutive Meeting.

The Bank of Canada Held Rates Steady and Took A More Neutral Tone

It was widely expected that the Bank of Canada would maintain its key policy rate at 5% for the third consecutive time. It will continue to sell government securities (quantitative tightening) to normalize its balance sheet. Market participants weighed and measured each word of the BoC press release and assessed that the Bank took a less hawkish stance.

This time, the release said, “Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year. Exports and inventory adjustment subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter, while government spending and new home construction provided a boost. The labour market continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth, job vacancies have declined further, and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Even so, wages are still rising by 4-5%. Overall, these data and indicators for the fourth quarter suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.”

At the prior meeting in late October, the Bank said that the labour market remained “on the tight side” but acknowledged today that it was loosening. Indeed, the October Monetary Policy Report suggested that the inflation rate would not hit its 2% target level until late 2025.

Today, the tone was much more optimistic, suggesting that policymakers are increasingly confident interest rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, Bank officials want to see more progress on core inflation before it begins to ease. It said, “The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.”

The central bank focuses on “the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour” and remains resolute in restoring price stability.

Bottom Line

Bond yields peaked in early October and have fallen by nearly 100 basis points. This has led to reductions in fixed mortgage rates; however, those cuts have been far less than historical experience would have suggested, given the rally in 5-year government bonds.

Cuts in variable mortgage rates await a reduction in the overnight policy rate, which triggers a commensurate decline in the prime rate, which is currently stuck at 7.2%. I expect the BoC to begin cutting the policy rate by the middle of next year, taking it down a full percentage point to 4% by yearend.

Written by DLC Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper

INTEREST RATES NOSEDIVE AS BANK OF CANADA CUTS RATES 50 BPS

The Bank of Canada Brings Out The Big Guns

Following yesterday’s surprise emergency 50 basis point (bp) rate cut by the Fed, the Bank of Canada followed suit today and signalled it is poised to do more if necessary. The BoC lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 bps to 1.25%, suggesting that “the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks.” This is the first time the Bank has eased monetary policy in four years.

According to the BoC’s press release, “COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply, and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices, and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.” The press release went on to promise that “as the situation evolves, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.”

Moving the full 50 basis points is a powerful message from the Bank of Canada. Particularly given that Governor Poloz has long been bucking the tide of monetary easing by more than 30 central banks around the world, concerned about adding fuel to a red hot housing market, especially in Toronto. Other central banks will no doubt follow, although already-negative interest rates hamper the euro-area and Japan.

Canadian interest rates, which have been falling rapidly since mid-February, nosedived in response to the Bank’s announcement. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plunged to a mere 0.82% (see chart below), about half its level at the start of the year.

Fixed-rate mortgage rates have fallen as well, although not as much as government bond yields. The prime rate, which has been stuck at 3.95% since October 2018 when the Bank of Canada last changed (hiked) its overnight rate, is going to fall, but not by the full 50 bps as the cost of funds for banks has risen with the surge in credit spreads. A cut in the prime rate will lower variable-rate mortgage rates.

Many expect the Fed to cut rates again when it meets later this month at its regularly scheduled policy meeting, and the Canadian central bank is now expected to cut interest rates again in April. Of course, monetary easing does not address supply-chain disruptions or travel cancellations. Easing is meant to flood the system with liquidity and improve consumer and business confidence–just as happened in response to the financial crisis. Expect fiscal stimulus as well in the upcoming federal budget.

All of this will boost housing demand even though reduced travel from China might crimp sales in Vancouver. A potential recession is not good for housing, but lower interest rates certainly fuel what was already a hot spring sales market. Data released today by the Toronto Real Estate Board show that Toronto home prices soared in February, and sales jumped despite low inventories. The number of transactions jumped 46% from February 2019, which was a 10-year sales low as the market struggled with tougher mortgage rules and higher interest rates. February sales were up by about 15% compared to January.

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres